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Keerthehan Kugathas

Brexit and its consequences

Dernière mise à jour : 27 févr. 2021

On October 17, 2020, Britain's withdrawal from the European Union was officially accepted by both parties. Since January 31, 2020, this text has allowed a transition period beginning on February 1, 2020 that should have ended on December 31. In this time span, during which the coronavirus has wreaked havoc across Europe, the European Union and Great Britain have nevertheless reached an agreement.



First, what is Brexit?


According to brexit.gouv.fr, Brexit can be defined as an abbreviation of "British Exit", referring to the UK’s exit from the EU. On June 23, 2016, the people of Britain voted with a majority of 51.9% for their country to withdraw from the EU. The procedure, under Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union, was triggered by the British government on March 29, 2017. After this event, the EU and the UK started negotiating to prepare England’s exit. An agreement was supposed to conclude these debates, setting out the effective withdrawal of the United Kingdom. Between July 2016 and July 2019, it was Prime Minister Theresa May who led the discussions on behalf of her country. After resigning, Boris Johnson succeeded her on July 23, 2019.


On this map, we can see that because of Brexit, Great Britain is also fragmented from a social and political point of view


The consequences of Brexit for France and the European Union following the agreement


According to the newspaper Les Echos, Great Britain’s departure from the EU on Friday, January 31 is very bad news for Brussels, both demographically, economically, and diplomatically speaking. France is also going to suffer from it. But why? First, according to several sources, the European population will drop from 512 to 466 million inhabitants. In addition to that, Europeans will have to fill a gap of roughly 60 billion euros within their 2021-2027 budget equation, which is a hard blow from an economic point of view. The United Kingdom is indeed the leading European power in terms of GDP (PIB in French), even if its national fortune was strongly affected by the Covid-19 crisis.


However, the agreement reached between Britain and the EU published on Saturday, December 27 will also have positive effects on both sides.


The text signed between the two governments is more than 1,246 pages long. Here are the main points worth remembering about this agreement. First, it guarantees duty-free and quota-free trade for all goods that comply with the appropriate rules of origin. This unprecedented agreement avoids a break in production chains and tariffs of one-tenth for the automotive sector, half for beef and a quarter for processed fish products, sugar, pork, cereals, dairy products, and several processed food products...


Nevertheless, the UK and the EU are committed to a level playing field. Britain agrees not to lower the overall level of European environmental and climate legislation. The agreement provides for the possibility to apply one-sided re-balancing actions, including tariffs in the event of major discrepancies, where they may lead to increase production costs and thus a competitive disadvantage. If the UK or the EU does not comply with the treaty, a binding dispute settlement mechanism, as exists in most trade agreements, will be responsible for resolving disputes. And in the face of strong resistance from London, the Court of Justice of the European Union will not be able to intervene in this process.



Conclusion


Fortunately, an agreement was put in place to reduce the tension between the two countries. The Brexit episode has lasted for about four years now and we have not heard the last of it. Moreover, the consequences for the EU will be considerable. The situation is, however, taking shape, and Brexit will be officially effective on January 1st, 2021, at midnight.

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